Newsletter

Now that all those 2011 year-in-review articles are yesterday's news, it's time to look ahead at what we might expect to see moving into 2012. Just two weeks into the new year, there's no shortage of predictions for what could happen on a variety of fronts:

Released this past week, the World Economic Forum's "Global Risk 2012" warns that a combination of risks could come together this year to sow the seeds for a "dystopian future for much of humanity." The risks with the greatest likelihood and greatest potential impact include:

• Chronic fiscal imbalances
• Severe income disparity
• Rising greenhouse gas emissions
• Critical fragile states
• Pervasive entrenched corruption
• Terrorism
• Water supply
• Food shortage crises
• Cyberattacks

In its executive summary, the report states:

"The interplay among these risks could result in a world where a large youth population contends with chronic, high levels of unemployment, while concurrently, the largest population of retirees in history becomes dependent upon already heavily indebted governments. Both young and old could face an income gap, as well as a skills gap so wide as to threaten social and political stability."

"This case underscores the danger that could arise if declining economic conditions jeopardize the social contracts between states and citizens. In the absence of viable alternatives, this could precipitate a downward spiral of the global economy fuelled by protectionism, nationalism and populism."

The International Energy Agency's (IEA) latest "World Energy Outlook", released last November, underscores the worries about prevailing energy, climate and emissions trends.

"There are few signs that the urgently needed change in direction in global energy trends is underway," the report begins ominously. Global demand for energy will continue to rise, even in a best-case scenario, the IEA predicts. The good news is that renewable energy sources will stay on a rapid path of development. The not-so-good news? "The age of fossil fuels is far from over."

Even more critically, every action we take – or don't take – in the coming year and the next few that follow could make the difference between a manageable future and a chaotic one.

"(C)arbon emissions are already 'locked-in' because of the nature of the plant and equipment which we continue to build," notes IEA executive director Maria van der Hoeven in the introduction to the latest "World Energy Outlook." "If we do not change course, by 2015 over 90% of the permissible energy sector emissions to 2035 will already be locked in. By 2017, 100%. We can still act in time to preserve a plausible path to a sustainable energy future; but each year the necessary measures get progressively tougher and viciously more expensive. So, let's not wait any longer!"

2011 already showed us that many people around the world – from the uprisings in Egypt and Tunisia to the global Occupy movement to protests against austerity measures from Chile to Spain – were becoming unwilling to wait any longer. Will 2012 be the year even more join them? Judging by the predictions, it seems there might be plenty of reason to do so.

As 2011 draws to a close, a look back reveals a year that – from an environment and sustainability perspective – was definitely a good news/bad news period.

Unfortunately, there was quite a lot of bad news, including:

• The discovery of “unprecedented” numbers of plumes emitting methane – a far more potent greenhouse gas than carbon dioxice – from the Arctic Ocean.
• A record number of billion-dollar weather- and climate-related disasters in the US alone: 12, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
• A new high in global carbon dioxide emissions... “as if the financial crisis had never happened.”
• A US Congress that achieved a new low in 2011, earning – according to Democrats – the title of “most anti-environment House in the history of Congress.”
• Canada’s decision, shortly after global climate talks wrapped up in Durban, South Africa, to withdraw from the Kyoto Protocol. That, combined with the nation’s development of its Alberta tar sands and push to build the Keystone XL pipeline into the US, sadly overshadowed Canada’s many successes in expanding wind energy, electric-car infrastructure and smart cities.

Still, despite such dispiriting news, the Gaia-minded among us had some significant announcements to cheer in 2011, among them:

• A last-minute deal hammered out in Durban in which climate negotiators basically agreed to agree on a plan to begin curbing carbon emissions after 2020. While nowhere close to what climate scientists say is needed to prevent the worst impacts of climate change, the pact offers more reason for hope than anyone had previously expected.
• After years of review and discussion, the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) finally reached a decision that will restrict mercury emissions from coal-fired power plants. As David Roberts at Grist reported, the new regulations will save “tens of thousands of lives every year, and prevent birth defects, learning disabilities, and respiratory diseases.”
• New, more sustainable ways of looking at how society – especially the economy – works became part of the popular discussion with the emergence of the Occupy movement and other protests around the globe. Three years after the near-collapse of the world’s financial markets, a growing number of people are becoming willing to question the status quo and explore more equitable and less damaging alternatives.

That last development, in particular, holds promise for the year, and years, to come. If we can begin, realistically and earnestly, to consider other ways of living and working, maybe... just maybe... we can slowly start to build a better future not just for a few but for all: people, animals, plants and the planet itself.

Happy New Year, everyone!